[SMM Chrome Daily Review] Market Stabilizes Pre-Holiday, Ferrochrome Production Falls Short of Expectations

On September 30, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,500-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price in east China was 8,500-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,000-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,000-9,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day.

The ferrochrome market operated steadily during the day. With the National Day holiday approaching, pre-holiday inquiries and transactions remained quiet. Market sentiment towards the future performance of ferrochrome remained relatively optimistic, with reluctance to budge on prices persisting. As recent chrome ore price increases faced resistance, smelting costs for ferrochrome fluctuated. Ferrochrome producers generally maintained profitability. Coupled with a significant reduction in imported ferrochrome, producers actively maintained production, keeping output at high levels. However, some producers in Inner Mongolia implemented production cuts or halts, leading to a slight 1.9% MoM decrease in actual high-carbon ferrochrome production in September. Simultaneously, maintenance and upgrades at some downstream steel mills resulted in actual production falling short of expectations. Overall, the supply-demand balance for ferrochrome remained tight, and prices are expected to trend steadily in the short term.

Raw material side, on September 30, 2025, the spot offer for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port was 56.5-58 yuan/mtu; the offer for 40-42% South African raw ore was 51.5-53 yuan/mtu; the offer for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was 58-59 yuan/mtu; the offer for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was 59-62 yuan/mtu; the offer for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 60-61 yuan/mtu; the offer for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate was 66-67 yuan/mtu, flat MoM from the previous trading day. Futures side, the offer for 40-42% South African fines was $280-284/mt; the offer for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was $345-355/mt, flat MoM from the previous trading day.

The chrome ore market operated steadily during the day. With the National Day holiday the next day, chrome ore trading had already ceased, with purchases and inquiries postponed until after the holiday. Recent concentrated arrivals of chrome ore at ports kept port inventory fluctuating at high levels, increasing holding pressure on traders. Some traders slightly lowered offers to avoid inventory buildup risks and to realize funds promptly. However, the healthy operation of the ferrochrome market supported chrome ore traders' confidence in the future market, maintaining their reluctance to budge on prices, awaiting follow-through from actual post-holiday transactions. Futures side, overseas miners showed a strong willingness to sell, with shipments remaining high. The gradually prominent supply surplus issue affected domestic traders' purchase willingness, resulting in mediocre actual transaction volumes. Attention is on the specific chrome ore export data for August from South Africa. Nevertheless, high planned production of ferrochrome creates rigid demand for raw material chrome ore. The chrome ore market is expected to operate steadily in the short term, with attention on changes in downstream purchase inquiries post-holiday.